Europe remains a work in progress and it grows through crisis. The political crisis in Europe is spurring new reforms and institutional capacity building. Monetary union was the driven by one overreaching challenge, what do with a reunified Germany. Forgetting the roots of EMU leads to misguided assessments.
This spring, the European Union raised its 2018 growth forecasts for its eastern members. Due to robust growth and tight labor markets, we believe the region’s central banks are behind the curve and will need to tighten policy more. Continue reading
The Canadian dollar has taken a big hit in recent days, but it is stretched and the market may be under-estimating the likelihood that the Bank of Canada hikes rates next month. Oil prices have also absorbed a great deal of bad news and may not be a headwind on the Canadian dollar. Continue reading 
Indonesian markets open tomorrow for the first time since June 8, and face a sobering new reality. Bank Indonesia has already hiked rates twice pre-emptively, and may be forced to do so again. However, Indonesia can look forward to continued political stability. Continue reading
Escalating trade tensions are injecting volatility into the capital markets. The US has several short-term advantages over China, but this will likely encourage an asymmetrical response.
