Our Evolving Thoughts on Brexit (continued)

Brexit EU and UK Boxing Gloves

The UK holds its referendum on EU membership on June 23. Over the past few months, our assessment has evolved with changing circumstances. To help you navigate the issue and the evolution of our thinking, we have pulled together our commentary and provide links to the articles that can be found on BBH’s Mind on the Markets blog.

June 14th Capital Markets Remain at UK Referendum’s Mercy: A spate of opinion polls showing a tilt toward Brexit as well as the leading UK newspaper urging the Leave vote on the front page are keeping the global capital markets on edge.

June 13th Brexit Dominates: There have been several polls showing those wanting to leave are ahead.  The event markets show an elevated risk, but still favor those that want to remain in the EU.

June 10th Politics & Economics: Brexit fears are thought to be a force weighing on bond yields, especially in Germany, Switzerland, Japan and the US.

June 10th Dollar Remains Firm, Yen May Be Drawing Support from Brexit Fears: A combination of Brexit anxiety (as the opinion polls suggest a tight contest) and more signs that make last week’s US jobs report an outlier (including a larger than expected fall in yesterday’s weekly jobless claims) appear to be weighing the on the euro against the dollar.

June 3rd Three Political Events before the UK Referendum: The UK referendum on June 23 is the most important political event of the first half of the year. A decision to leave could be a significant disruptive force.

May 31st Sterling Approaches Two-Month Trendline: We have long recognized that a vote to leave the EU would be tantamount of a vote of no-confidence in the government, which is campaigning to remain in the EU.

May 31st Sterling Slips and Aussie Pops as Investors Await Fresh Insight into Fed Trajectory: There are also some concerns that regardless of the outcome of the referendum, the heated battle will generate a challenge to Prime Minister Cameron.

May 16th Drivers for the Week Ahead: Everything pales compared with the risk of Brexit.  We fear too many people are assuming that like the Scottish referendum some opinion polls may be exaggerating the tightness of the contest.

May 2nd Drivers For The Week Ahead: The referendum has dominated political discussions.  It was exposing fissures in the coalition that makes up the Tory Party.

April 21st ECB Takes Center Stage Many of the latest polls suggest a small shift toward the “remain” camp regarding the referendum. However, there remain a substantial number of undecided voters, and the outcome appears to be in their hands.

April 14th BOE and BrexitThe BOE recognized what many in the market have already accepted; namely that the economy has lost some momentum.

March 23rd Brexit Fears Boost Sterling Put Buying: Three-month volatility has jumped 2.6 percentage points to 14.5%.  It appears to be the largest single-day increase in sterling volatility since 2001.

March 22nd Brexit Risks Increasing: Nearly everything that could have gone wrong for UK Prime Minister Cameron has.

March 21st Drivers- When a Quarter is Two Halves: IDS favors Brexit, and his departure underscores our concern that regardless of the outcome of the June referendum, a political crisis is brewing.

March 16th Brexit, Cyprus and The EU Summit: We explore the European Union summit and its political implications towards Brexit.

March 15th Anticipation of Osborne’s Budget Weighs on Sterling: The budget presentation will be Osborne’s last major statement to Parliament ahead of the June referendum.

February 29th FAQ: UK’s Referendum on EU Membership: The UK has long had a strained relationship with the EU and has never been comfortable with the ever increased drive for greater integration and harmonization of rules and regulations coming from Brussels

February 24th Dollar Firm, Sterling Pounded Again: The event markets and many polls still point to the UK staying in the EU.

February 22nd Sovereignty and Brexit: As the European Union grew; the unanimity in decision-making increasingly gave way to qualified majority voting decreasing the UK’s influence.