Speculators in Futures are Net Long All the Dollar Bloc Currencies–First Time in Five Months

new united kingdom

With a small adjustment to gross positions, speculators turned net long New Zealand dollars for the first time in three months.  Now speculators in the futures market are net long the dollar-bloc currencies. They are still net short the currencies, but trimmed them in the CFTC reporting week ending February 7.  The exception was sterling where speculators trimmed longs (4.1k contracts to 38.1k) more than covered shorts (1.3k contracts to 102.7k)

Position adjustments were small for the period.  None made it to our 10k-contract threshold for significance.  The yen came the closest as the bears covered 9.6k contracts, leaving 80.9k gross short contracts in speculators’ hands. Of the other 15 gross positions we track, only three were larger than 5k.  Speculators changed four gross positions by less than 1k contracts.

However, one point is clear, and that is that the extreme long dollar position has been adjusted. 

The net short euro position of 45k contracts is the smallest since last May.  The net short yen position of 55.1k contracts is the smallest in two months.  Speculators have the small net short Mexican peso since the middle of December.

Speculators moved out of the 10-year Treasury note futures.  The bulls liquidated 49.5k contracts, leaving a gross long position of 472.3k contracts.  The bears covered 98.6k contracts.  The gross short position stands at 776.9k contracts.  The net short position fell to 304.6k contracts from 353.7k.

Unlike the note futures, bulls and bears saw opportunity in the oil futures market.  The bulls added 5.2k contracts to lift the gross long position to 661.9k contracts.  The bears sold another 20.9k contracts, giving them a gross short position of 184.9k contracts.  The result was a 15.7k reduction in the net long position, which now stands at 477.0k contracts.

7-Feb      Commitment of Traders
Net  Prior  Gross Long Change Gross Short  Change
Euro -45.0 -47.7 126.7 1.0 171.7 0.3
Yen -55.1 -58.3 25.9 -6.3 80.9 -9.6
Sterling -64.5 -61.8 38.1 -4.1 102.7 -1.3
Swiss Franc -14.6 -17.1 7.1 0.2 21.7 -2.3
C$ 8.6 3.5 46.1 1.2 37.6 -3.9
A$ 16.7 12.1 66.5 7.4 49.8 2.7
NZ$ 1.8 -1.0 34.9 2.1 33.0 -0.7
Mexican Peso -58.5 -63.2 31.2 5.2 89.7 0.5
(CFTC, Bloomberg) Speculative positions in 000’s of contracts