Dollar Mixed As Markets Await Fresh Drivers

new checkers

  • With the flurry of major US economic data out of the way, the FX market is searching for direction
  • During the North American session, the US reports some minor data points
  • Swiss National Bank kept policy steady, as expected; so too did Norway’s Norges Bank but it adjusted its expected rate path upward
  • The White House tapped market economist and television commentator Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn
  • Czech Republic reported strong January data; Poland February CPI rose 1.4% y/y

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Dollar Firms Ahead of US CPI Data

new coins

  • Many see the eruption of the scandal that threatens senior Japan government officials as yen positive
  • Prime Minister May confronted Russia on allegations that it used nerve gas in the UK
  • The US government blocked Broadcom’s $117 bln acquisition of Qualcomm; US reports February CPI
  • The OECD just upgraded its global growth forecasts
  • Brazil January retail sales are expected to rise 3.5% y/y; Mexico January IP is expected to rise 0.4% y/y

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Euro Slips Ahead of the ECB Meeting


  • ECB meets and there may be some minor tweaks to the forecasts and language
  • Trade remains very much in focus
  • Following the US report of its largest monthly trade deficit since the Great Financial Crisis, China reports its February trade figures today
  • Japan revised its Q4 17 GDP estimate sharply higher
  • USD/HKD traded at a new post-peg high just above 7.84; Moody’s downgraded Turkey a notch to Ba2 with stable outlook
  • Mexico February CPI is expected to rise 5.37% y/y; Peru central bank is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 2.75%

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Renewed Threat of Trade War Makes Investors Anxious

new lock

  • The resignation of Gary Cohn has sent ripples through the capital markets
  • Australia’s Q4 growth was a little slower than expected and China reported a drop in its reserves
  • Today’s North American session features the Bank of Canada meeting
  • In addition to US trade figures, the ADP private sector jobs estimate will be published
  • Bank Negara kept rates steady at 3.25%, as expected; Turkey central bank kept all rates steady, as expected

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Resiliency Demonstrated


  • Republican leaders have pressed the President to reconsider his proposed tariffs
  • The RBA left rates on hold and made only small changes to the accompanying statement
  • BOJ’s Kuroda reiterated his comments from last week to the Diet today
  • The US economic calendar features factory orders and the final durable goods orders report
  • Korea February CPI rose 1.4% y/y; Philippines February CPI rose 4.5% y/y; South Africa Q4 GDP grew 1.5% y/y

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